Since
February
2013,
when
President
Vladimir
Putinannexed
Crimea,
we
have
found
ourselves
reachinginto
the
past
—
specifically
to
the
cold
war
—
to
make
sense
of
geopolitics.
自2014年2月俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔渠京(Vladimir
Putin)吞并克里米亚以来,我们在理解地缘政治时往往需要回顾历史,确切地说是回顾冷战时期。
From
the
1950s,
the
USSR
had
nuclear
weapons
to
compete
with
American
might.
It
led
amilitary
coalition,
the
Warsaw
Pact,
that
intimidated
western
Europe.
Soviet
ideologyrepudiated
all
that
Nato
countries
stood
for
in
politics
and
economics.
从上世纪50年代开始,前苏联(USSR)拥有了核武器来与美国角力。它领导了恫吓西欧的军事联盟——华沙条约组织(Warsaw
Pact)。苏联的意识形态与北约国家在政治和经济上的所有观念格格不入。
There
were
times,
notably
the
Cuban
missile
crisis
of
1962,
when
the
world
trembled
at
theprospect
of
imminent
nuclear
Armageddon.
It
remained
a
constant
possibility,
by
accident
ordeliberate
action,
until
the
late
1980s,
when
US
President
Ronald
Reagan
and
MikhailGorbachev,
his
Soviet
counterpart,
began
the
process
of
strategic
disarmament.
有几次,迫在眉睫的核末日魅影使世界不寒而栗,特别是1962年的古巴导弹危机。核末日的可能性(无论是出于意外还是蓄意)持续存在——直到上世纪80年代末时任美国总统罗纳德里根(Ronald
Reagan)和时任苏联领导人米哈伊尔戈尔巴乔夫(Mikhail
Gorbachev)开始战略裁军。
The
reaction
to
Mr
Putin’s
actions
in
Ukraine
from
western
leaders
was
swift
and
firm.
USPresident
Barack
Obama,
German
Chancellor
Angela
Merkel
and
UK
Prime
Minister
DavidCameron
agreed
on
economic
sanctions.
The
Russian
economy,
buffeted
by
the
plunge
inworld
oil
prices,
sank
further.
Foreign
direct
investment
dried
up.
Big
Russian
businesses
joinedthe
capital
flight.
In
his
December
2014
annual
television
message
to
the
Russian
people,
MrPutin
admitted
hard
times
lay
ahead
while
urging
Russians
to
back
him
as
the
man
to
restorenational
greatness.
对于普京在乌克兰采取的举动,西方国家领导人做出的反应迅速而坚决。美国总统巴拉克攠巴马(BarackObama)、德国总理安格拉默克尔(Angela
Merkel)以及英国首相戴维愠蕓伦(David
Cameron)一致同意对俄罗斯实施经济制裁。因油价暴跌而遭受冲击的俄罗斯经济进一步下滑。外国直接投资枯竭。俄罗斯大型企业加入了资本外逃的行列。在2014年12月向俄罗斯民众发表年度电视讲话时,普京承认俄罗斯面临艰难时期,同时敦促俄罗斯人支持他实现国家复兴。
Russia,
humbled
in
the
1990s,
offers
fertile
soil
for
nationalism
—
and
the
more
Mr
Putin
iscriticised
by
foreign
leaders,
the
higher
his
domestic
ratings.
Yet
his
authoritarian
methodsleave
him
vulnerable
to
the
kind
of
unexpected
protests
that
occur
when
people
decideenough
is
enough.
The
miserable
fate
of
Libya’s
Muammer
Gaddafi
is
a
stark
example
of
whatcan
happen
when
an
autocratic
leader
falls
from
favour
—
and
fear
of
a
civil
commotion
isnever
far
from
the
Russian
president’s
mind.
在上世纪90年代失去脸面的俄罗斯,为民族主义的滋生提供了肥沃的土壤——普京越是受到外国领导人的批评,他在国内的支持率就越高。不过,他的威权做法使他容易在人民觉得受够了之后遭遇那种意想不到的抗议。利比亚的穆阿迈尔愠乓菲(Muammer
Gaddafi)的下场就是威权领导人失去权力后结局的鲜明事例,而对国内民变的恐惧始终让俄罗斯总统难以释怀。
This
time,
threats
of
nuclear
holocaust
do
not
spring
so
readily
to
Russian
lips.
Indeed,
a
treatyon
further
strategic
arms
reduction
was
signed
as
recently
as
2010.
这一次,俄罗斯人不再轻易说出以核毁灭为要挟的话。的确,进一步削减战略武器的条约刚刚在2010年签署。
Moscow
is
certainly
modernising
its
armed
forces,
which
have
proved
more
than
a
match
for
theUkrainians
—
but
the
Russian
technological
base
is
woefully
inferior
to
America’s.
Mr
Putin
maybluster
but
the
reality
is
that
he
cannot
risk
war
with
Nato
unless
he
and
his
bloated
elite
arewilling
to
forgo
the
benefits
of
their
ill-gotten
riches.
莫斯科肯定在推进军事现代化建设——事实证明俄军强于乌克兰军队——但是俄罗斯的技术基础远远落后于美国。普京或许嘴上强硬,但现实是,他不敢冒险与北约打仗——除非他和听命于他的精英阶层愿意放弃他们聚敛的不义之财。
Russia
has
developed
from
the
pupa
of
communism
into
an
authoritarian-capitalistcaterpillar.
Authoritarianism
and
market
economics
can
be
found
together
elsewhere
in
theworld,
in
countries
that
are
far
more
successful
than
Russia
in
diversifying
their
economies;Singapore
is
probably
a
more
attractive
model.
Russia
has
no
allies,
save
for
a
crumblingclient
state
in
what
is
left
of
Bashar
al-Assad’s
Syria.
Moscow
sells
a
lot
of
military
technologyto
that
regime
but
it
is
doubtful
that
Mr
Assad
pays
up
any
more
dependably
than
SaddamHussein,
who
was
notorious
for
running
up
debts
to
the
Soviet
leadership.
俄罗斯已经从共产主义的蛹蜕变成一条威权资本主义的毛虫。在世界其他地方可以看到威权体制和市场经济并存的现象,这些国家在推动经济多元化方面比俄罗斯成功得多;新加坡很可能是个较有吸引力的典范。除了一个摇摇欲坠的附属国——巴沙尔阿萨德(Bashar
al-Assad)仍在掌控的那部分叙利亚——俄罗斯没有其他盟友。莫斯科方面向阿萨德政权出售大量军事装备,但是阿萨德在买单方面是否比萨达姆侯赛因(SaddamHussein)更可靠值得怀疑;当年萨达姆以拖欠苏联的债务出名。
All-out
struggle
between
Russia
and
America
on
a
cold
war
scale
is
not
on
the
cards.
What
wedo
have,
however,
is
a
situation
that
is
bad
—
and
could
easily
worsen.
俄罗斯和美国之间不太可能重现达到冷战规模的全面对抗。然而,我们确实面临糟糕的局面,并且很容易变得更糟糕。
It
is
optimistic
to
expect
Mr
Putin
to
change
course.
For
now,
he
gains
esteem
at
home
whenbullying
the
neighbours.
Estonia,
Latvia
and
Lithuania
have
genuine
cause
for
concern.
In
thelonger
term,
experience
suggests
Mr
Putin
will
prove
a
poor
geostrategic
thinker.
He
hasalready
damaged
Russian
economic
interests,
which
surely
lie
in
securing
western
assistanceto
build
up
the
country’s
ability
to
cope
with
competition
from
China.
指望普京改弦易辙的想法太乐观了。就眼下而言,欺压邻国使他在俄罗斯国内赢得威望。爱沙尼亚、拉托维亚和立陶宛确实有理由感到担忧。长期来看,经验似乎表明,普京将被证明是一个拙劣的地缘政治思想家。他已经损害了俄罗斯的经济利益,俄罗斯的利益肯定在于争取西方协助其构建实力,以便应对中国的竞争。
Mr
Putin’s
frequent
diplomatic
overtures
for
a
Syrian
settlement
deserve
seriousexamination.
But
he
shows
no
sign
of
disengaging
from
Ukraine;
and,
having
loosed
the
dogs
ofnationalism,
he
would
find
it
hard
to
put
them
back
in
the
kennel,
even
if
he
wanted
to.
普京为解决叙利亚问题而频繁提出的外交建议值得认真考虑。但是,他并未表现出撤离乌克兰的迹象:而且,在松绑了民族主义的猛兽后,他会发现很难再把它们关回牢笼,即使他想这么做。
This
makes
for
a
less
predictable
global
situation
than
the
finely
tuned
balance
of
power
thatprevailed
during
the
cold
war.
这使当今的全球格局比冷战时期微妙的实力平衡更难预测。